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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/04 11:19

   Grains Mostly Higher at Midday

   Soybeans lead trade higher at midday. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock markets are mostly flat with the Dow down 5 points. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 10 points higher. 
Energies are lower with crude oil up $0.90. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious 
metals are higher with gold up $1.


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade finding some short 
covering and light commercial buying overnight. If trade can hold the early 
week lows, a range should emerge ahead of next week's WASDE report. Weather 
remains non-threatening in the near term, and crop progress showed slight 
improvement at 70% good to excellent, and 9% poor to very poor, 90% silking vs. 
89% on average, and 29% in the dough vs. 31% on average. Ethanol margins are 
receiving a boost from the bounce in energy values. Chart direction remains 
down, but we have been more sideways in recent days. On the December chart corn 
resistance is in the $3.90 area where we find the 10-day moving average. 
Support is at the $3.74 1/2 low printed yesterday then the $3.62 1/2 contract 


   Soybean trade is 7 to 12 cents higher at midday with good buying surfacing 
this morning. Meal is $2 to $3 higher, and oil is 20 to 30 points higher.  The 
weekly crop progress report showed a slight improvement in conditions at 63% 
good to excellent, and 11% poor to very poor, blooming at 84%, 1% ahead of 
average, setting pods was 54%, 5% ahead of average. Good weather can add 
soybean yield well into September so forecasts should continue to be the most 
important market directional indicator in the near term, especially with pod 
fill past the halfway point. On the November chart support is the contract lows 
at $8.95. Resistance is the 100-day moving average at $9.55. 


   Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents higher across the three contracts at midday 
with support from the firmer row crop trade and the weaker dollar. Exports have 
improved the last couple of weeks but world supplies and the strong dollar have 
kept the lid on bounces. The weekly crop progress report showed winter wheat 
harvest 93% complete vs. 85% on average, Spring wheat was 70% good to 
excellent, 7% poor to very poor, and harvest was 8% complete vs. 11% on 
average. The rest of the Northern Hemisphere should be picking up harvest on 
spring-planted wheat as well which should push exports out of the Black Sea 
area. On the September Kansas City wheat chart support is the fresh low at 4.81 
with the 10-day moving average resistance at $5.00. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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