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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/26 11:19

   Grain Trade Mostly Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower across the board at midday led by wheat.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower at midday with the Dow futures down 
25 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 1 point 
higher. Energies are higher with crude up $1.10. Livestock trade is mostly 
lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $7.00.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday after trading a few higher 
overnight. May moved above the 100-day and highest major moving average, at 
$3.95 1/2, picked up some buy stops going to $3.97, before sinking mid-morning. 
A conclusive push back through that level up to the two-month high at $4, if it 
would occur, should trigger additional buy stops and bigger short covering. For 
now the momentum has stalled and we are posting a light reversal at midday. 
Chart support is at $3.86, the 20-day. New crop trade has been holding back 
around the February insurance average level, at $4.15, at midday. Firmer 
futures could help to push corn acreage towards the 89 million acre level. The 
weekly export sales were disappointing at 435,000 metric tons. The average 
trade guesses for the March Planting Intentions and March 1 Stocks have the 
corn acreage at 88.7 million acres with a range of 87-89.75 versus 90.6 last 
year. The USDA March 1 Quarterly Stocks estimate is 7.610 billion bushels with 
a range of 7.46-7.8 billion versus 7.008 a year ago. The reports due out on 
Monday historically give us one of the biggest report days of the year.  

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with meal $1 to $2 lower and 
oil flat to 10 points higher. With 2015 South American harvest moving toward 
completion and supplies available they should keep their prices below US 
prices. A front month inverse continues to persist in meal, indicating strong 
up from demand. The anticipation of larger soybean acres will continue to cap 
upside for now. The lower prices in general could lose major crop acreage 
overall, which is why even confident bears respect possible fundamental news 
changes on the USDA major report dates. The weekly export sales were better 
than expected at 505,800 metric tons of old crop, 220,200 of new crops, 224,300 
of meal, and 22,400 of oil. The USDA also announced 280,000 metric tons of new 
crop soybeans sold to unknown. The average trade guess for the USDA March 
Planting Intentions is at 85.9 million acres with a range of 83-88 million 
versus 83.7 million a year ago. Soybean quarterly stocks are expected to be at 
1.345 billion with a range of 1.273-1.4 billion versus 994 million a year ago. 
The May 10-day moving average at $9.73 is nearby support with the 20-day at 
$9.88 resistance.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 12 to 17 cents lower at midday with the firmer dollar and 
easing weather concerns encourage liquidation of recent long positions. 
Southern Plains weather will have to be watched more in coming days with the 
moisture favoring the eastern growing areas this week. Export sales were 
disappointing at 102,300 of old crop, and 79,400 of new. On the KC May chart we 
have slipped below the 10-day moving average at $5.55 with the 20-day at $5.46 
as support right now. The average trade guess for the all wheat planted number 
is at 55.8 million acres with a range of 54.9 to 56.8 versus 56.82 million 
acres a year ago. The March 1 wheat stocks are expected to be at 1.14 billion 
versus 1.057 billion a year ago. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


(CZ)

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