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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/18 11:20

   Grain Trade Mixed at Midday

   Chart buying is still a supportive force for beans with Argentine weather 
limiting sellers. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the DOW futures down 35. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 45 points higher. 
Energies are lower with crude down $.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious 
metals are flat.  

   CORN

   Corn trade is a penny lower and very slow, the trading range since last 
night up to midday is 2 1/2 cents. Outside markets are lightly negative at 
midday with the higher dollar with lower crude and stocks. Chart comments are 
dominating the news along with South America weather. Brazil and Argentina are 
in key weather weeks now for corn.  Argentine heat is not liked by the market 
which limited selling. Granted a good portion of Argentina has been wet and can 
use the heat, other areas will go downhill. Shallow rooted corn could also 
quickly go to being stressed if the heat persists into next week. It looks like 
a lot will ride on the weather forecasts 8-14 days out. If moisture shows up 
then it should relieve concerns and the market give back some weather premium. 
For right now the market saw a positive chart move yesterday, a slow and 
lightly lower trade is still good following the move to new highs for the move 
on Tuesday. On the March corn chart support is at the $3.60 10-day moving 
average then the 20-day at $3.55. Resistance is at the $3.69 6-month high 
followed by the $3.70 200-day moving average.  

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is a nickel higher on nearby March to 9 cents higher on 
November new crop at midday after mostly lower trade overnight and this 
morning. Meal is $8 off its lows with midday net changes around $1 to $2 a ton 
higher and soybean oil is up 10-18 points. The high today on March is two cents 
higher than yesterday; this is 80 cents above the low printed last Monday. 
Argentine production forecasts are dropping to 50-53 million metric tons versus 
the USDA 57 million ton number last week. The recent crop damage and production 
expectations declines are due to areas that are both too wet, and to dry in the 
South. The weather is receiving the most attention which should continue. On 
the March soybean chart support is at the 10-day and highest major moving 
average at $10.28. The high today at $10.77 1/4 is resistance and a 6-month 
high. The next level of resistance would be the $11 area; then the March 
futures high last June at$11.35.   

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is mixed at midday with Minneapolis up 6 cents, Kansas City down 
a penny and Chicago down 3 cents. The row crops were limiting upside overnight 
but beans are starting to provide some spillover support again. The weekly 
export inspections were only 344,436 tons yesterday and better demand news is 
needed. The chart picture may continue to generate some short covering this 
week. In the big picture the USDA numbers were mixed last week with bearish 
stocks numbers but a lower than expected winter wheat seedings number. The 
lower winter wheat seedings illustrates the economics of low prices is starting 
to work; it is discouraging production. The problem is world supplies are so 
large a small reduction in production will still leave large world and domestic 
carryover stocks. The March Kansas City chart support is at the $4.40 10-day 
moving average, resistance is at the $4.59 200-day moving average. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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