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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/30 11:43

   Soybeans Strongest at Midday

   Grain trade is lower, lead by beans at midday following a crop rating 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 65 points. The 
interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 48 points higher. 
Energies are weaker with crude down 0.55. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
lower and hogs firmer. Precious metals are lower with gold down $7.20. 


   Corn trade is 5 cents lower at midday making new contract lows again after 
early two sided trade evaporates again. Ethanol margins have improved with 
ethanol futures stable to firmer with the cheaper corn helping along with the 
end of summer driving season. Corn basis will remain on the defensive as 
harvest approaches with the last on farm bushels moving to town. The weekly 
conditions and progress report had corn unchanged at 75% good to excellent, 7% 
poor to very poor, with 92% in the dough, 87% on average, 60% dented vs. 52% on 
average, at 9% mature vs. 11% on average. The crop is generally a bit ahead of 
normal with warmer temps in much of the belt keeping things moving. On the 
chart, resistance is in the area in between the 10-day and 20-day moving 
averages at $3.34 - 3.36, then the $3.44 1/4 August high. The fresh contract 
low of $3.15 3/4 is December support after the old low at $3.18 failed this 
morning. Nearby September hit $3.05 so we are a nickel away from seeing a 2 in 
front of corn. The large crop and upcoming harvest only has end users 
cautiously scale down buying at this juncture. 


   Soybean futures found broad selling this morning after flat overnight trade, 
with action 15 to 20 lower at midday. Meal is $5.50 to $6.50 lower and oil is 
40 to 50 points lower. Good to excellent ratings improved 1 percentage points 
to 73% good to excellent and 7% poor to very poor. 94% were setting pods vs. 
92% on average, and 5% were dropping leaves, same as average, helping to keep 
pressure on.  Trade will be watching for further export sales this week with a 
Chinese delegation visiting to secure fall needs with another 126,000 metric 
tons announced as sold to unknown. Wetter weather in much of the belt should 
help trade to finish out. On the November soybean chart support was at the 
$9.60 low from Friday with the 200-day at $9.66 above that; longer-term support 
is the $9.30 area from April.  


   Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents lower with early light short covering 
dissipating when the row crops turned lower. Spring wheat will continue to see 
harvest pressure with ample supply weighing on all classes with the fresh lows 
made Monday with harvest 81% complete vs. 62% on average, although spring wheat 
is showing the most strength today. Canadian harvest will be hitting full 
stride soon, and Russia looks to continue an aggressive export pace with 
ongoing issues in Egypt causing problems. On the Kansas City  December chart, 
support is now the $3.97 low from this morning, with trade well below the 
nearby moving averages. Chicago has printed a new contract low for the fifth 
day in a row, which Kansas City holding back above Chicago values. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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