Printable Page Corn News   Return to Menu - Page 1 2 3 4 5 6
 
 
Market Matters Blog           05/26 12:32
DDG Prices Higher on Average
Dried Distillers Grains: A Look at Where US Exports to Top World Markets Stand
Brazil's Scandal Hits Soybean Prices
Arkansas Farmland Ravaged by Floods; Some Farmers May Not Recover
DDG Prices Higher on Average 
US Rivers Under Siege
DDG Prices Mixed; Average Remains Steady
Variable Storage Rates: Not Just for SRW Anymore
DDG prices remained mostly steady, with a few spots slightly higher 
Spring Wheat Planting Off to Slow Start in Key States

******************************************************************************
DDG Prices Higher on Average

   The DTN average dried distillers grains, or DDG, spot price was up $1 from 
two weeks ago, at $97, for the week ended May 25. Of the 39 locations from 
which DTN collects spot prices, eight bids were $3 to $8 higher, one bid was $4 
lower, and the balance of the prices were unchanged.

   The value of DDG relative to corn, based on those bids for the week ended 
May 25, was at 73.55%, and the value of DDG relative to soybean meal was at 
31.83%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was at $3.88, compared to the cost 
per unit of protein for soybean meal, at $6.41. The DDG relative price to corn 
and soybean meal futures continues to be lower and more competitive versus 
historical levels.

   Merchandisers noted that prices in the Midwest have been firm on steady 
movement of supply. Prices have moved a little higher on some pre-holiday 
trading to ensure needs are covered before the Memorial Day weekend. Informa 
Economics reported that the holiday-shortened workweek next week could have 
some local price volatility, but given sufficient supply, prices are apt to 
remain range bound, absent a significant change in runtimes.  

   CIF NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) dried distillers grains with solubles, or 
DDGS, prices for the week ended May 25 were at $131 to $136, and June prices 
were at $128 to $133. Traffic on the Mississippi River has been slowed again as 
high-water conditions still exist. Upper Mississippi from St. Louis to Cairo is 
above flood stage, and traffic is moving with safety protocols in place. Tow 
sizes have been reduced by five to 10 barges and restricted to daylight transit 
only. The Lower Mississippi River from Cairo to New Orleans is at or near flood 
stage and tow sizes are reduced, and in some areas are restricted to daylight 
transit only. The Mississippi River in Baton Rouge is expected to crest at its 
highest level in six years on May 30, hitting 41 feet. The last time the river 
crested at 41 feet or higher was in 2011 when it crested at 45 feet. Major 
flood stage is 40 feet. Both barge and ocean vessel traffic is moving, but 
safety protocols will be in place at least into June.

   U.S. Grains Council (USGC) reported Thursday that despite market challenges, 
the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) trade data show exports of 
U.S. distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) have remained steady due to 
attractive prices, available supply and market development efforts by the 
Council among a diversity of buyers. "From September 2016 to March 2017, USDA 
reported the United States exported 6.9 million metric tons of DDGS, a 6% 
increase year-over-year. This steady pace of exports occurred even with a 
dramatic drop in purchases from the largest player in the past few marketing 
years, China."


                                               CURRENT      PREVIOUS    CHANGE
COMPANY   STATE                               5/11/2017    5/11/2017
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
          Missouri             Dry              $120          $120        $0
                               Modified          $60          $60         $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
          Illinois             Dry               $95          $95         $0
          Indiana              Dry               $95          $95         $0
          Iowa                 Dry               $92          $92         $0
          Michigan             Dry               $90          $90         $0
          Minnesota            Dry               $90          $90         $0
          North Dakota         Dry               $90          $90         $0
          New York             Dry              $130          $130        $0
          South Dakota         Dry               $90          $90         $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
          Kansas               Dry               $98          $98         $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
          Indiana              Dry              $110          $105        $5
          Iowa                 Dry               $98          $98         $0
          Michigan             Dry              $110          $102        $8
          Minnesota            Dry               $96          $96         $0
          Missouri             Dry              $112          $112        $0
          Ohio                 Dry              $110          $105        $5
          South Dakota         Dry               $96          $96         $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
          Kansas               Dry              $103          $103        $0
                               Wet               $45          $45         $0
          Illinois             Dry              $105          $105        $0
          Nebraska             Dry              $103          $103        $0
                               Wet               $45          $45         $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
          Illinois             Dry              $100          $100        $0
          Indiana              Dry               $90          $90         $0
          Iowa                 Dry               $95          $95         $0
          Michigan             Dry               $95          $95         $0
          Minnesota            Dry               $85          $85         $0
          Nebraska             Dry               $99          $95         $4
          New York             Dry              $120          $120        $0
          North Dakota         Dry               $95          $92         $3
          Ohio                 Dry               $94          $98        -$4
          South Dakota         Dry               $85          $85         $0
          Wisconsin            Dry               $95          $90         $5
Valero Energy Corp., San Antonio, TX (402-932-5901)
          Indiana              Dry               $95          $90         $5
          Iowa                 Dry               $90          $90         $0
          Minnesota            Dry               $90          $90         $0
          Nebraska             Dry               $95          $95         $0
          Ohio                 Dry              $100          $95         $5
          South Dakota         Dry               $80          $80         $0
          California                            $160          $152        $8
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
          California           Dry              $168          $166        $2
*Prices listed per ton.
          Weekly Average                         $97          $96         $1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

                     VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
                        Settlement Price:   Quote Date      Bushel  Short Ton
                                     Corn      5/25/2017   $3.6925      $131.88
                             Soybean Meal      5/25/2017   $304.70
            DDG Weekly Average Spot Price         $96.00
                                  DDG Value Relative to:   5/25        5/11
                                                    Corn    73.55%       74.56%
                                            Soybean Meal    31.83%       30.85%
                               Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                                     DDG     $3.88        $3.84
                                            Soybean Meal     $6.41        $6.65
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 25.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Dried Distillers Grains: A Look at Where US Exports to Top World Markets Stand

   The distillers grains market has faced many challenges in the past 12 
months, with U.S. exports to China slowing to a trickle due to higher duties 
and tariffs and exports to Vietnam coming to a complete halt due to stricter 
regulations on fumigation. Now there is also concern in Mexico -- another top 
market for U.S. DDG -- over President Donald Trump's intentions to renegotiate 
NAFTA and the impact that might have on U.S. exports to that country.

   These and other issues affecting the DDG industry were addressed at the 
Distillers Grains Technology Council's 21st annual Distillers Grains Symposium 
held May 17-18 in Indianapolis, Indiana.

   Distillers grains has a long history of being recognized as a highly 
nutritious animal feed ingredient. It is unique in that it is the only 
fermented feed ingredient from the dry mill fuel or beverage ethanol process. 
Dried distillers grains (DDG)/dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) 
contribute to approximately 66% of total average ethanol plant revenue 
generated from co-products, according to a Distillers Grains Symposium speaker 
from Christianson, PLLP. 

   The value of DDG is about 77% to 80% of cash corn, making it a cheaper 
alternative to corn feeding. DDG also has a higher protein count at 28% vs. 
corn at 8%.

   The following is a look at where U.S. DDG exports to some of the top world 
markets currently stand.

   CHINA

   On Jan. 10, China released a final ruling on U.S. DDGS duties and tariffs 
following a year-long trade probe. Anti-dumping duties were set at a range from 
42.2% to 53.7%, while anti-subsidy tariffs will be between 11.2% and 12%. The 
duties and tariffs apply to distillers dried grains both with and without 
solubles and will be in effect for five years starting Jan. 12, 2017. The net 
result of this is that total duties and tariffs will be somewhere around 80% to 
92% the landed price, according to Sean Broderick, DDGS Marketing manager at 
Cenex Harvest States. The landed price is the total cost of goods that have 
been shipped to a location including purchase price, freight, insurance, and 
other costs up to the port of destination. It also includes the customs duties 
and other taxes levied on the shipment.

   The preliminary penalties assessed in late September 2016 were an 
anti-dumping deposit of 33.8% and an anti-subsidy tariff of 10% to 10.7%. 

   According to a Renewable Fuels Association May 18 article, prior to China's 
final ruling, the country had been a top export market for U.S. DDGS. In 2015, 
the country imported 6.5 million metric tons, accounting for 51% of total U.S. 
DDGS exports. China's Jan. 10 ruling also contributed to lower prices for DDGS, 
which have fallen steadily since the summer of 2016. 

   Broderick spoke at the DGTC symposium and noted that the 19th National 
Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, People's 
Republic of China, in the autumn of 2017. Five of the seven members of the 
current Politburo Standing Committee -- the top decision-making body -- are 
expected to retire at this congress. Broderick remarked that there is a 
possibility new members could influence policy and possibly address the current 
anti-dumping duties. "We need to understand China and embrace them," said 
Broderick. "We need their business."

   MEXICO

   The U.S. Census Bureau said Mexico was the top export destination for U.S. 
DDGS in January, accounting for 19% of total exports, followed by Turkey and 
China. China's January purchase of 87,310 metric tons was down 60% from a year 
ago. The Census Bureau March report said that Turkey was the top export 
destination accounting for 19% of total exports, with Mexico a close second. 
Exports from September through March are up 6% compared to last year's pace. 
Exports to China for this timeframe are roughly a third of year ago results. 

   U.S. grain farmers are voicing their support and appreciation for trade with 
Mexico, a message U.S. Grains Council Chairman and Maryland farmer Chip 
Councell gave when he traveled to meet with Mexican buyers in March.

   "If you look at the logistics of Mexico, no other country can replace it as 
a customer for U.S. grain," Councell said in the March 30 USGC Global Update. 
"The logistics by rail, truck and boat give the United States such a huge 
advantage." 

   Mexico is now the largest market for U.S. corn, with 13.3 million metric 
tons (523.6 million bushels) of imports in 2015/2016, and was the 
second-largest customer for U.S. DDGS in 2015/2016, with imports of 1.9 million 
metric tons. For 2017, Mexico's status changed to being the largest export 
market for DDGS, which has grown 12% compared to last year. "The Ag industry 
needs NAFTA and it needs to be preserved," said Broderick.

   VIETNAM

   With Vietnam still undecided about the fumigation issue that suspended U.S. 
exports after Dec. 17, 2016, the U.S. needs to continue to look for other 
opportunities. Broderick said that in November 2016, Vietnam imported 240,000 
metric tons of U.S. DDGS. In January 2017, that total shrunk to zero. Through 
Oct. 31, Vietnam was the third-largest foreign buyer of U.S. DDGS.

   At issue is Vietnam's Plant Protection Department (PPD) ruling that as of 
Dec. 1, 2016, only methyl bromide would be acceptable as fumigation for bulk 
and container shipments of DDGS, banning phosphine, the chemical of choice in 
our industry. PPD's reasoning behind the change was that containers were still 
arriving infested with the larger cabinet beetle. Some in the industry believe 
that the infestation may be taking place as fumigated U.S. containers move 
overseas and are exposed to other containers on the ship that may carry insects.

   USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, or APHIS, with the help 
of industry exporters, sent a final proposal about what fumigants can be 
accepted for use on containers. One concern addressed was who would monitor the 
fumigation in the United States, what documentation would be acceptable, along 
with other issues about the process from start to finish to Vietnam's PPD for 
approval. So far, there has been no response back from Vietnam.

   A merchandiser I chatted with at the symposium told me he has heard from 
sources in Vietnam that this issue may not be resolved until the end of 2017. 
Meanwhile, Vietnam has been buying DDGS from Canada and other countries, 
ignoring the U.S. who used to be their No. 1 source. On top of that, DDGS 
prices in Vietnam are close to $100 per ton higher than U.S. prices.

   Broderick noted that countries like Morocco and Egypt have been importing 
more DDGS, as well as Saudi Arabia. He said he's hopeful about U.S. DDGS 
exports. "We can't consume everything we make in the U.S., and as plant margins 
remain good, more DDGs will hit the market. We need the export market."

   It is clear that we do need a strong export market. The RFA noted that, so 
far in 2017, DDGS prices are approximately 40% lower than in June 2016.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn

    

******************************************************************************
Brazil's Scandal Hits Soybean Prices

   I was minding my own business Wednesday evening, getting ready to watch 
LeBron James thrash the Celtics (which he later did) when I glanced at the 
quote screen on my laptop and literally saw the daily bar on the chart for the 
Brazilian real double in size in a matter of seconds, heading due south. 
Knowing this was bearish for U.S. corn and soybean prices, I quickly scoured 
the news and made some contacts, looking for an explanation.

   Recent news items showed that Brazil was in the process of trying to pass 
pension reform that was expected to help the economy. The looming vote was 
close and my first guess was that maybe the reform did not pass. There had also 
been articles that expected Brazil's central bank to lower interest rates in 
2017 -- a move that would be seen as bearish for the country's currency, the 
real. However, it did not seem likely the central bank would cut rates so late 
in the day.

   As it turned out, neither of those factors were responsible for the real's 
sharp drop. A reporter on Twitter tipped me off to fresh news that concerned 
President Michel Temer and Brazil's ongoing corruption scandal. 

   As Bloomberg News later reported at https://bloom.bg/2rhw7Rl, one of 
Brazil's largest newspapers reported that two executives from meatpacking giant 
JBS SA gave the Supreme Court tapes which allegedly recorded Temer authorizing 
bribes being paid to Eduardo Cunha, a former speaker of the lower house 
involved in last year's impeachment of then-President Dilma Rousseff. 

   If you are starting to feel a little dizzy at this point, it is 
understandable as it was one year ago at this time that we were talking about 
the Brazilian real rising because investors thought the impeachment of Rousseff 
would lead to a more pro-business government under Temer. JBS SA also made 
headlines in March of this year when it was discovered that the company was 
involved in shipping unsafe meat with the cooperation of Brazilian inspectors.

   Wednesday evening's news was the unexpected offspring of both stories, now 
involving Temer and laid at the doorstep of the Supreme Court for its ruling. 
Investors in Brazil were understandably shocked by Wednesday's news, sending 
Brazil's stock market, the Bovespa, down 8.6% and the real down 7% on Thursday 
morning at the time of writing this blog.

   For importers of soybeans, a 7% drop in the value of Brazil's currency means 
that Brazil's soybean prices just got 7% cheaper overnight and that puts 
bearish pressure on U.S. soybean prices to compete for export business. Before 
the real's drop, U.S. soybean exports had been doing well and total soybean 
shipments were up 18% in 2016-17 from a year ago.

   The key question now is: How long will it take for investor confidence to 
return to Brazil? 

   Given the long, tangled web of the corruption investigation still unfolding 
in Brazil, a quick return to stable government does not seem likely, meaning 
that the real, which just broke to its lowest prices in 2017, is likely to stay 
lower. 

   For U.S. soybean prices already weighed down by the anticipation of 
increased ending supplies in 2017-18, this latest news out of Brazil heaps more 
bearish weight on U.S. soybean prices and gives investors one more reason to be 
skittish in 2017.

   Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com 

******************************************************************************
Arkansas Farmland Ravaged by Floods; Some Farmers May Not Recover

   On May 2, flooding from heavy rains inundated farm fields, homes and 
businesses in Arkansas. The storms caught both livestock and row-crop farmers 
at a critical time, according to Randy Veach, president of the Arkansas Farm 
Bureau. 

   "We have livestock farmers who have lost cattle in the floods, miles of 
fencing has been washed away and there are many rural roads and bridges that 
are impassable. And for the row-crop farmers, this will be a big blow, as much 
of the rice and corn had already been planted," Veach said in a news release on 
the AFB website.

   Andy Jett farms 2,500 acres of rice and soybeans in Clay County, Arkansas, 
and Ripley County, Missouri, near Success, Arkansas. "With our farm being near 
the Current River and Little Black River, we have seen our share of floods, but 
none this severe," he told me on May 8. "We are facing replanting over 400 
acres of our 1,400-plus acres of rice and having to rebuild nearly all of the 
levees that we use to irrigate our rice." 

   The Current River forms in the southeastern portion of the Missouri Ozarks 
and flows southeasterly out of the Ozarks into northeastern Arkansas where it 
becomes a tributary of the Black River, which flows into the White River, which 
heads to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

   "The swiftness of the water and our close proximity to the Ozarks has 
deposited sand and gravel deposits in our precision-graded fields, a thing 
we've never seen before," Jett said. "This issue is going to have to be 
addressed before we can even get in to replant. We are usually finished with 
rice and planting soybeans around Mother's Day. So we have our work cut out for 
us the next few weeks."

   Jett told me that, before the flood, he and his brother were completely done 
planting rice and had 90% of their soybean fieldwork finished. "Now, it's gonna 
be like basically starting over," he said. 

   On May 10, Jett told me that they're just now getting back in the field. "We 
are replanting and have a bulldozer pushing sand and gravel out of the fields."

   Derek Haigwood, who farms corn, milo and rice in Jackson and Independence 
counties in northeast Arkansas, told me that the water was 4.5 feet over his 
levee. "We lost a huge percentage of the crops we had planted," he said. "We 
will start back replanting today (May 10). Probably all soybeans."

   North of Wynne, Arkansas, Will Nicholson's farm sits on the west side of the 
ridge where he grows cotton, corn and soybeans. "We drain and dry fast," he 
said. "Our neighbors on the east side are still flooding on the St. Francis 
Bay, and the water over there is still rising. Waters in the west of the county 
are going down; the bayou is still high in far west Cross County, I hear. We 
had to replant 100 acres of beans this week. Guys are re-pulling rice levees 
instead of planting beans." 

   "Levees or dikes are little mounds you build in a rice field to hold a flood 
on the rice. We are rebuilding and reseeding them," said Jett. 

   Here is a link to the University of Arkansas Extension service weekly rice 
update on May 12 that addresses re-pulling and an update on the condition of 
the rice crop: https://goo.gl/s9M8ve 

   Joe Christian, secretary and treasurer of the Arkansas Farm Bureau, farms 
3,500 acres, about half of it rice and the rest soybeans and corn. He told me, 
"I farm on the 'forgotten river' in Arkansas, the Cache, which is probably one 
of the most politicized rivers in America. I still have about half my ground in 
the Cache River bottoms and used to flood out about one out of seven years. The 
last five years, I've had some type of flooding that's caused me to lose some 
crop. In 2011, there was a record flood and this one may break it." 

   Here is a video taken over northeast Arkansas on May 2: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRLkPHCnITg. Video is courtesy of the Arkansas 
Farm Bureau. 

   The Cache River runs from the southeast Missouri line about 100 miles to the 
east-central part of the state into the White River below Clarendon, Arkansas. 
Christian told me that the Cache is said to have the most continuous hardwood 
trees in the lower 48 states. In the late 1960s, he said, they started dredging 
the river from where it flows into the White River north because of flooding, 
and they cleaned out seven miles before getting stopped by State Sen. Dale 
Bumpers along with Ducks Unlimited and other environmental groups. To this day, 
the lower Cache has not changed. 

   "On the upper Cache from a town called Grubbs (which Christian farms just 
north of), it's been cleaned out and maintained by local Drainage Districts for 
about 50 miles to the mouth. So the water comes down to Grubbs and has nowhere 
to go, but it backs up on about 100,000 acres of farmland on a big flood like 
this one. On the lower Cache, the water just stands on the hardwood timber -- 
now called the Cache River National Wildlife Refuge -- for much of the year. 
Now that it's a national refuge, we cannot clean the river out, even though 
it's killing a lot of the timber because water stands on it too long. So 
basically, this is a man-made problem that's affecting a lot of people's 
livelihood that could be solved with some compromise from all sides."  

   Christian told me that he and other farmers have pinned their hopes for a 
solution to the Cache on Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue, who visited on 
May 7 and flew over the devastation. On Friday, May 12, Arkansas Gov. Asa 
Hutchinson sent a letter to secretary Perdue regarding dates for replanting 
rice and the state's need for assistance from the U.S. Department of 
Agriculture in the wake of recent heavy rains and floods. Here is the letter: 
https://goo.gl/c6oUYs 

   REPLANT, ESPECIALLY RICE, MAY NOT BE AN OPTION FOR ALL

   Arkansas is the largest rice-producing state in the U.S. However, the 
current flooding may change that for this year. Christian told me that rice can 
stand sitting in water, but not for this long. Plus, the insurance replant date 
of June 10 will likely not be a reality. 

   "I still have water on my fields as of May 10," said Christian. "It still 
has to dry out, and that means with no more rain." 

   Christian said that, so far, he isn't seeing any reaction to the flooding in 
the rice price, but eventually it may affect the domestic market because many 
acres may not be replanted. 

   Arkansas NASS reported that as of May 7, 92% of the state's rice crop had 
been planted, and 77% of the crop had emerged. NASS posted these comments from 
some of the Cooperative Extension Service county agents: "Evaluating rice crop 
after flooding. Some acres will need to be replanted and some acres will go 
back into soybeans. Levees washed out and will have to be repaired. Had some 
hail damage to soybeans, corn and cotton. Some cotton will be replanted," noted 
agent Branon Thiesse, Craighead County. 

   "We had an excess amount of water in our area this week. Nearly 100% of the 
producers who border a creek or river had their bottom pastures flooded. 
Several are waiting to see how much seed they may have lost and how much weed 
seed was washed in," noted agent Olivia Foster, Carroll County. 

   "Damage will take months to clean up and get the land back into production," 
noted agent Darin Henderson, Madison County.

   Arkansas Farm Bureau Vice President Rich Hillman is from Lonoke County and 
farms rice, soybeans and wheat. In an interview posted on the AFB website, he 
said, "Margins are tight; razor thin." He said when famers have to start over 
after they've put a crop in and then put in another crop, they probably have to 
switch commodities. "You're already behind the eight ball before you get 
started," he said.

   Hillman noted that some of the towns that are flooded have been underwater 
the past three years, and some are still trying to build back resources from 
2011. He said that, in some places, water will exceed the historical levels 
seen in 2011.

   "Some of the family farms will not be able to come out of this," said 
Hillman. "They won't be able to recover from this flood, and that's why it is 
so devastating." 

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn 

******************************************************************************
DDG Prices Higher on Average 

   The DTN average dried distillers grains, or DDG, spot price was up $1 from 
one week ago, at $96, for the week ended May 11. Of the 39 locations from which 
DTN collects spot prices, six bids were $1 to $11 higher, three bids were $5 
lower, and the balance of the prices were unchanged.

   The value of DDG relative to corn, based on those bids for the week ended 
May 11, was at 74.56% and the value of DDG relative to soybean meal was at 
30.85%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was at $3.84, compared to the cost 
per unit of protein for soybean meal, at $6.65. 

   DDG prices were mixed this week, with strength seen in demand from the parts 
of the Eastern Corn Belt where runtimes have slowed, according to 
merchandisers. Some plants are slowing production due to maintenance downtimes, 
and some are slowing due to weakening margins, making DDG supplies in their 
area tight. 

   "Ethanol production margins were mostly lower," reported Informa Economics. 
"Central Illinois was at $0.07 per gallon as of May 3 while other locations 
ranged from $0.04 per gallon to $0.27 per gallon. Lower ethanol prices and 
higher natural gas prices contributed to the weakness in margins." However, 
according to Informa Economics, ethanol output overall has climbed above the 
million barrels per day, indicating more supply could fill the market, which 
may pressure prices. 

   CIF NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) dried distillers grains with solubles, or 
DDGS, prices for the week ended May 11 were 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher for 
May at $122 to $126. June prices were unchanged to up 2 cents at $123 to $127. 
Traffic on the Mississippi River resumed earlier in the week, but tows are 
still under high water restrictions. Also, the Force Majeure declaration 
invoked by CME on May 4, 2017, on the Illinois River because of flooding 
closing some terminals, was removed Friday. In parts of the Lower Mississippi 
River, tows are only allowed transit during daylight hours to prevent barges 
from hitting bridges. Water levels continue to rise in New Orleans and Baton 
Rouge, and the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge is not expected to crest until 
May 20. Barge and vessel operations are not stopped, but delays are expected to 
slow traffic. This mess could continue through June.


                                                CURRENT     PREVIOUS    CHANGE
COMPANY    STATE                               5/11/2017    5/4/2017
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
           Missouri             Dry              $120         $120        $0
                                Modified          $60          $60        $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
           Illinois             Dry               $95          $95        $0
           Indiana              Dry               $95          $95        $0
           Iowa                 Dry               $92          $92        $0
           Michigan             Dry               $90          $90        $0
           Minnesota            Dry               $90          $90        $0
           North Dakota         Dry               $90          $90        $0
           New York             Dry              $130         $130        $0
           South Dakota         Dry               $90          $90        $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
           Kansas               Dry               $98          $98        $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
           Indiana              Dry              $105          $97        $8
           Iowa                 Dry               $98          $95        $3
           Michigan             Dry              $102          $97        $5
           Minnesota            Dry               $96          $95        $1
           Missouri             Dry              $112         $112        $0
           Ohio                 Dry              $105          $94       $11
           South Dakota         Dry               $96          $94        $2
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
           Kansas               Dry              $103         $103        $0
                                Wet               $45          $45        $0
           Illinois             Dry              $105         $105        $0
           Nebraska             Dry              $103         $103        $0
                                Wet               $45          $45        $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
           Illinois             Dry              $100         $100        $0
           Indiana              Dry               $90          $90        $0
           Iowa                 Dry               $95          $95        $0
           Michigan             Dry               $95          $95        $0
           Minnesota            Dry               $85          $85        $0
           Nebraska             Dry               $95          $95        $0
           New York             Dry              $120         $120        $0
           North Dakota         Dry               $92          $92        $0
           Ohio                 Dry               $98          $98        $0
           South Dakota         Dry               $85          $85        $0
           Wisconsin            Dry               $90          $90        $0
Valero Energy Corp., San Antonio, TX (402-932-5901)
           Indiana              Dry               $90          $90        $0
           Iowa                 Dry               $90          $95       -$5
           Minnesota            Dry               $90          $90        $0
           Nebraska             Dry               $95         $100       -$5
           Ohio                 Dry               $95          $95        $0
           South Dakota         Dry               $80          $85       -$5
           California                            $152         $152        $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
           California           Dry              $166         $166        $0
*Prices listed per ton.
           Weekly Average                         $96          $95        $1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price:                        Quote Date     Bushel     Short Ton
Corn                                     5/11/2017      $3.6050    $128.75
Soybean Meal                             5/11/2017      $311.10
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price            $96.00
DDG Value Relative to:                                  5/11       5/4
Corn                                                    74.56%     74.30%
Soybean Meal                                            30.85%     30.24%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG                                                     $3.84      $3.80
Soybean Meal                                            $6.65      $6.61
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes.

DDG price represents the average spot price from

Midwest companies represents the average spot price

from Midwest companies collected on Thursday

afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit of

protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5.

DDG cost per unit of protein is cost per

ton divided by 25.


   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
US Rivers Under Siege

   Severe flooding in the central portion of the U.S. has devastated river 
towns and farmland in its path and has caused over a dozen deaths. The flooding 
also resulted in closing a portion of the Mississippi River south of St. Louis 
due to high water endangering tows pushing barges through floodwaters. 
Additionally, the U.S. Coast Guard closed 76 miles of the Mississippi River 
from Chester, Illinois to Cairo, Illinois late May 4. 

   Transportation of all agriculture products and other products has either 
stopped or has been slowed on nearly all river segments. Empty barges are 
unable to move north past the river closures to terminals that want to ship 
corn or beans or other commodities to the Gulf.

   Loaded barges in the area above and below the closures are stopped from 
moving as well. However, on May 8's morning, the area from mile market 179 to 
184 reopened with "excessive" delays expected according to barge lines. While 
the Ohio River is still open, high water operating conditions are in effect for 
the mid to lower portion of the river. Mile marker 33 to 110 near Cape 
Girardeau is still closed and is not expected to reopen until May 9.

   Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Illinois were hit the hardest by flooding 
are now watching and waiting for rivers to crest and floodwaters to recede. In 
Arkansas, there were five rivers that breached levees. The Black River reached 
a record of 28.95 feet. The White River, which runs in to the Arkansas River, 
is expected to crest at 36.5 feet on Wednesday. The Arkansas River, which meets 
the Mississippi River at Rosedale, is currently closed to all navigation due to 
flood conditions. 

   Flooding and other storm damage hit about 937,000 acres of Arkansas 
cropland, with losses to farmers currently estimated at $64.5 million, 
according to a preliminary estimate released May 4 by the University Of 
Arkansas System Division Of Agriculture. Jarrod Hardke, extension rice 
agronomist for UA, estimated 156,000 acres (planted) of rice were lost, 83,200 
acres of soybeans damaged, 47,900 acres of corn flooded, and 9,300 acres of 
cotton were destroyed. The latest USDA crop progress report showed 89% of the 
state's expected 1.2 million acres of rice had been planted with 71% emerged; 
45% of the soybeans were planted and 97% of corn was planted with 89% emerged.

   Tom Russell, co-owner of the Russell Marine Group New Orleans, Louisiana, 
told DTN that many areas on the Illinois River are above flood stage. "Traffic 
cannot move due to swift flows and bridge clearances. Water levels will be on a 
slow flush over the week. In the mid-Upper Mississippi, above St. Louis, the 
river is in high water conditions with slow and limited traffic movement, which 
is further hindered by locking delays due high water." 

   In the Upper Mississippi, the St. Louis Harbor to Cairo portion of the Upper 
Mississippi (UMR) is closed to all traffic. On May 6, the river at St. Louis 
was at 42.28 feet, with major flood stage at 40 feet. There are also closures 
in the corridor between St Louis and Cairo. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois, 
where the Mississippi River meets, was at 51.96 feet May 8 and is expected to 
reach 52.5 feet by May 10. Moderate flooding is 40 feet above zero gauge and 
major flooding is at 53 feet. While the Ohio River is still open, high water 
operating conditions are in effect for the mid to lower portion of the river.

   Because of the closures, barge freight rose in the corridor above St. Louis 
due to very few empties available north of the river closure. The closure means 
empty barges can't get up river to fill needs in the UMR, and any loaded barges 
cannot get past St. Louis. Barge movement along much of river system is 
basically on hold until flood waters recede and the river reopens. This has 
also strengthened rail basis for corn and soybeans delivered to St. Louis.

   In the Lower Mississippi (Cairo to New Orleans), water off the Illinois, 
Upper Mississippi and Ohio River is starting to push downriver," said Russell. 
"The river in many areas is now high enough to stop loading operations at 
numerous terminals." High water operating conditions exist in the LMR and tows 
are subject to daylight transits in some areas. 

   New Orleans and Baton Rouge Harbors will remain open, but stages are 
expected to be revised to near flood stage levels as the water comes down. 
Russell said, "Some safety protocols are now implemented and more will come. 
Moving barges and ships will certainly be slowed. Additional protocols will 
include daylight traffic restrictions in some areas. Docking and undocking 
daylight only, extra tug power in fleets and perhaps stand-by at some vessels."

   The Mississippi River at the Carrollton gauge in New Orleans rose above 11 
feet, prompting the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), New Orleans District, 
to reactivate Phase I flood fight procedures as of May 4, according to a news 
release by the USACE. "Closely coordinating efforts with the local levee 
authorities, the New Orleans District will begin patrolling the levees along 
the Mississippi River south of Baton Rouge twice weekly until the water level 
drops below 11 feet at the Carrollton gauge," said the Corps in the press 
release. On Sunday, May 7 the water level was at 12.28 feet and is expected to 
rise to 12.60 feet on May 8.

   The USACE and State of Louisiana have established distances for certain 
types of work that can adversely affect the integrity of the federal levees and 
structures. All work that may impact the Mississippi River and Tributaries 
(MR&T) levees, which includes transport of heavy loads over the levee, 
disturbance of grass cover or subsurface work within 1,500 feet of the levee, 
is prohibited when the Mississippi River elevation reaches 11 feet and rising 
at the Carrollton Gage in New Orleans. 

   Basically, the river system is still backed up. "It will still take time for 
the system to get back to normal operations. As levels fall and movements start 
to resume, expect and plan for continued traffic delays. Restrictions such as 
daylight movement only in many areas and tow size restrictions will be in place 
for a period of time," concluded Russell. 

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DDG Prices Mixed; Average Remains Steady

   The DTN average dried distillers grains, or DDG, spot price was unchanged 
from one week ago, at $95, for the week ended May 5. Of the 39 locations from 
which DTN collects spot prices, nine bids were $2 to $5 higher, three bids were 
$2 to $5 lower, and the balance of the prices were unchanged.

   The value of DDG relative to corn, based on those bids for the week ended 
May 5, was at 74.30% and the value of DDG relative to soybean meal was at 
30.24%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was at $3.80, compared to the cost 
per unit of protein for soybean meal, which was at $6.61.

   DDG prices were mixed this week with end-user demand slow. Prices in the 
upper Midwest were slightly higher at some locations as maintenance downtimes 
and runtime issues have caused some plants to quote a higher spot price. Barge 
offers rose as the flooding in St. Louis and on the Illinois River disrupted 
barge movement on the entire river system for at least the rest of this week. 
South of St. Louis, barge movement has stopped as the U.S. Coast Guard closed 
the river until water levels retreat. Informa Economics noted, "By next week, 
availability should improve and the price increase is more a function of supply 
rather than there being any increase in export demand. The concern is that once 
runtimes improve, by the end of the month, prices are apt to soften in order to 
attract additional demand."

   CIF NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) dried distillers grains with solubles, or 
DDGS, prices for the week ended May 5 were unchanged for April at $125. May 
prices were down 1 cent to up 1 cents at $123 to $125. The Census Bureau 
reported that U.S. exports of distillers grains totaled 1,029,111 metric tons 
in March, up 25% from a year ago. Turkey was the top export destination in 
March, accounting for 19% of total exports and with Mexico a close second. In 
the first three months of 2017, exports of U.S. distillers grains were up 26% 
from a year ago. "Thursday's report continued to show U.S. exports doing well, 
even with lighter purchases from China, and was slightly bullish for distillers 
grains," said DTN Market Analyst Todd Hultman.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn


                               CURRENT    PREVIOUS     CHANGE
COMPANY   STATE                           5/4/2017   4/27/2017
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
          Missouri            Dry           $120        $120     $0
                              Modified      $60         $60      $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
          Illinois            Dry           $95         $95      $0
          Indiana             Dry           $95         $95      $0
          Iowa                Dry           $92         $92      $0
          Michigan            Dry           $90         $90      $0
          Minnesota           Dry           $90         $90      $0
          North Dakota        Dry           $90         $90      $0
          New York            Dry           $130        $130     $0
          South Dakota        Dry           $90         $90      $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
          Kansas              Dry           $98         $98      $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
          Indiana             Dry           $97         $95      $2
          Iowa                Dry           $95         $93      $2
          Michigan            Dry           $97         $95      $2
          Minnesota           Dry           $95         $93      $2
          Missouri            Dry           $112        $110     $2
          Ohio                Dry           $94         $92      $2
          South Dakota        Dry           $94         $92      $2
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
          Kansas              Dry           $103        $105     -$2
                              Wet           $45         $45      $0
          Illinois            Dry           $105        $105     $0
          Nebraska            Dry           $103        $105     -$2
                              Wet           $45         $35      $10
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
          Illinois            Dry           $100        $100     $0
          Indiana             Dry           $90         $90      $0
          Iowa                Dry           $95         $95      $0
          Michigan            Dry           $95         $95      $0
          Minnesota           Dry           $85         $85      $0
          Nebraska            Dry           $95         $95      $0
          New York            Dry           $120        $120     $0
          North Dakota        Dry           $92         $92      $0
          Ohio                Dry           $98         $98      $0
          South Dakota        Dry           $85         $85      $0
          Wisconsin           Dry           $90         $90      $0
Valero Energy Corp., San Antonio, TX (402-932-5901)
          Indiana             Dry           $90         $85      $5
          Iowa                Dry           $95         $90      $5
          Minnesota           Dry           $90         $90      $0
          Nebraska            Dry           $100        $105     -$5
          Ohio                Dry           $95         $95      $0
          South Dakota        Dry           $85         $85      $0
          California                        $152        $155     -$3
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
          California          Dry           $166        $166     $0
*Prices listed per ton.
          Weekly Average                    $95         $95      $0
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

             VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
               Settlement Price: Quote Date   Bushel Short Ton
                            Corn    5/4/2017 $3.5800   $127.86
                    Soybean Meal    5/4/2017 $314.10
   DDG Weekly Average Spot Price      $95.00
                      DDG Value Relative to:   5/4     4/27
                                        Corn  74.30%    73.48%
                                Soybean Meal  30.24%    30.59%
                   Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                         DDG   $3.80     $3.80
                                Soybean Meal   $6.61     $6.54
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 25.

    

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

    

******************************************************************************
Variable Storage Rates: Not Just for SRW Anymore

   On April 24, the CME Group announced the following: "Effective Sunday, March 
18, 2018, and pending all CFTC regulatory review and approval periods, The 
Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. ("CBOT" or "Exchange") intends to 
implement a Variable Storage Rate (VSR) mechanism in its KC HRW Wheat futures. 
The Exchange intends to implement the VSR mechanism in lieu of seasonal storage 
rates for the contracts."

   The VSR mechanism was actually introduced in November 2009 to improve 
cash/futures convergence at futures contract expiration, after failing to do so 
nearly a year and a half prior to that. Farmer and grain merchants were 
concerned that commodity markets had become more volatile due to increased 
speculation from funds. A large percentage of commercial market participants 
told the CME that the VSR concept "would transfer a large portion of the price 
discovery process, currently occurring in the basis, to the futures spread 
market, and result in improved cash/futures convergence."

   According to the CME, VSR is a market-based determinant of maximum allowable 
storage charges for outstanding wheat shipping certificates. It triggers higher 
maximum allowable storage charges that allow wider spreads when spreads are 
near financial full carry and lower maximum allowable storage charges when 
spreads are narrow or inverted. Everything you need to know to become more 
educated about VSR can be found at this link, courtesy of the CME: 
https://goo.gl/WEWJzD

   Fast forward to 2017, with the same concerns raised for the HRW wheat basis 
levels in Kansas being "extremely weak with CBOT KC HRW wheat futures not 
converging at delivery points such as Kansas City, Missouri, or Salina, 
Kansas," according the Kansas Farm Bureau (KFB) in response to the survey. "It 
is important to note though, that while the issues of weak basis and the lack 
of convergence are related, they are quite different. Weak or 
wider-than-average basis is a key market indicator, and today's much 
weaker-than-average basis levels indicate that there is an overabundance of 
supply. The market can't use all of our wheat, and from a marketing standpoint, 
it is telling us to store it. Implementation of a VSR or any changes to the 
CBOT KC HRW Wheat futures will NOT solve these issues." 

   The KFB also stated on their website, "While it is not a panacea ... a 
pragmatic step toward better convergence would be to adopt a VSR provision in 
CBOT KC HRW Wheat futures, similar to what is already in place in their soft 
red winter wheat contract. This allows the futures contract storage costs to 
increase to whatever level is necessary to stop futures participants from 
arbitraging between futures contracts and again bring the focus back to the 
cash-futures price relationship, and convergence."

   However, not everyone agrees. Dan Maltby, consultant for Risk Management 
Group told DTN, "Obviously, the CME views this as a money maker. KC spread 
volatility will increase, which over the long run, should offer opportunity." 
However, he added, "It will have absolutely nothing to do with the local basis 
out west. Trying to pass this off as related to convergence is hypocritical. 
The law of unintended consequences will almost certainly kick in too, but 
everyone will worry about it later."

   Angie Setzer, vice president of grain at Citizens LLC, Charlotte, Michigan, 
said, "For me in my experience, the elevator is the one that benefits the most. 
The farmer will only benefit right away if he has a bin with good quality wheat 
in it." 

   Setzer said in her area, where soft red winter wheat is grown, VSR did work 
to firm basis, but it took a couple of years to do so. "Some could argue the 
firming came more from supply shifts, but I know elevators that built space 
strictly to hold wheat. It became a bidding war at harvest to get your hands on 
supplies," Setzer said. 

   "Of course the downside to this is the farmer can and will get charged more 
for commercial storage. From a farmer standpoint it's important to remember 
this tool is designed to benefit the folks with bins. Yes, you will likely see 
your basis strengthen as a result of grain being kept out of the pipeline," 
said Setzer, "but understand your cost of storage can and likely will increase 
while you're dealing with the wide basis levels already seen. The improvement 
in basis you're hoping for could take years to develop; this will definitely 
not solve your lack of convergence problem overnight."

   Speculating how a move in wheat spreads will develop is nearly impossible, 
added Setzer. "As a speculator or even an elevator manager, you can feel 
comfortable a spread should move in one direction or will only get so wide, but 
your guess is really as good as any, because the big dog wheat holders will 
have the ability to deliver, stop or in any other way manipulate how those 
spreads are traded (a point the CME will argue isn't true)," she said.

   "In the end though, it's not really the death knell some would like you to 
believe it is for your market structure. To be honest, aside from the potential 
increase in storage costs, many of you won't really notice it's been 
implemented other than the likely increase of wheat sitting in areas you aren't 
used to seeing wheat sit in," concluded Setzer.

   Since the HRW wheat VSR mechanism doesn't kick in until Sunday, March 18, 
2018, if it passes CFTC regulatory review and approval periods, farmers have 
some time to try and make sense of it all. 

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn

    

******************************************************************************
DDG prices remained mostly steady, with a few spots slightly higher 

   The DTN average dried distillers grains, or DDG, spot price was unchanged 
from one weeks ago, at $95, for the week ended April 27. Of the 39 locations 
from which DTN collects spot prices, eight bids were $2 to $5 higher, two bids 
were $2 to $8 lower and the balance of the prices were unchanged.

   The value of DDG relative to corn, based on those bids for the week ended 
April 27, was at 73.48% and the value of DDG relative to soybean meal was at 
30.59%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was at $3.80, compared to the cost 
per unit of protein for soybean meal, which was at $6.54.

   DDG prices have been firm with some locations posting better bids based on 
slightly tighter availability. Ethanol production remains below the million 
gallons a week growth we saw in prior weeks, as plants take spring maintenance 
downtimes. However, this has not made a huge impact on supplies in most places 
and merchandisers have said they aren't seeing many supply issues; maybe at a 
few spots that are down, but overall, supply is not a problem. It is likely 
runtimes will increase once maintenance work is done, especially if processor 
margins remain strong. This may cause a slight downturn in prices if supplies 
build up in the next few weeks, but if the price relative to corn and soymeal 
remains competitive, inclusion rates will likely stay at levels similar to what 
they are now.

   CIF NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) dried distillers grains with solubles, or 
DDGS, prices for the week ended April 27 were up 3 cents for April at $124 to 
$126. May prices were up 2 cents to unchanged at $124 to $125. Export demand is 
flat, but U.S. Grains Council continues to educate new buyers about the 
benefits of U.S. DDGS. The grains council organized a DDGS conference in South 
Korea on April 25 to provide local millers with additional technical expertise 
and logistical support.

   Ninety-six percent of feed millers in South Korea now include U.S. 
distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in their rations for the 
country's livestock and poultry industries, thanks in part to work started by 
the Grains Council the in 2004 to introduce this feed ingredient.

   The Grains Council noted that, "South Korea purchases of U.S. DDGS continue 
to grow. South Korea imported nearly 845,000 metric tons of U.S. DDGS in the 
2015/2016 marketing year, up from about 621,000 metric tons the prior year. In 
the first six months of the 2016/2017 marketing year (Sep. 2016-Feb. 2017), 
South Korea imported nearly 516,000 metric tons of U.S. DDGS, up 31 percent 
from the same time period the previous year." 

   The Council projects that South Korea will continue to increase its imports 
of U.S. DDGS with the improvement of inclusion rates and more efficient supply 
systems between U.S. suppliers and South Korean buyers.


                                          CURRENT              CHANGE
COMPANY                     STATE        4/27/2017   4/20/2017
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
          Missouri          Dry             $120       $120      $0
                            Modified        $60         $60      $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
          Illinois          Dry             $95         $95      $0
          Indiana           Dry             $95         $95      $0
          Iowa              Dry             $92         $92      $0
          Michigan          Dry             $90         $90      $0
          Minnesota         Dry             $90         $90      $0
          North Dakota      Dry             $90         $90      $0
          New York          Dry             $130       $130      $0
          South Dakota      Dry             $90         $90      $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
          Kansas            Dry             $98         $98      $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
          Indiana           Dry             $95         $95      $0
          Iowa              Dry             $93         $90      $3
          Michigan          Dry             $95         $90      $5
          Minnesota         Dry             $93         $90      $3
          Missouri          Dry             $110       $108      $2
          Ohio              Dry             $92         $92      $0
          South Dakota      Dry             $92         $88      $4
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
          Kansas            Dry             $105       $105      $0
                            Wet             $45         $45      $0
          Illinois          Dry             $105       $105      $0
          Nebraska          Dry             $105       $105      $0
                            Wet             $35         $35      $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
          Illinois          Dry             $100        $95      $5
          Indiana           Dry             $90         $90      $0
          Iowa              Dry             $95         $92      $3
          Michigan          Dry             $95         $95      $0
          Minnesota         Dry             $85         $85      $0
          Nebraska          Dry             $95        $100     -$5
          New York          Dry             $120       $120      $0
          North Dakota      Dry             $92        $100     -$8
          Ohio              Dry             $98         $93      $5
          South Dakota      Dry             $85         $85      $0
          Wisconsin         Dry             $90         $90      $0
Valero Energy Corp., San Antonio, TX (402-932-5901)
          Indiana           Dry             $85         $85      $0
          Iowa              Dry             $90         $90      $0
          Minnesota         Dry             $90         $90      $0
          Nebraska          Dry             $105       $105      $0
          Ohio              Dry             $95         $95      $0
          South Dakota      Dry             $85         $85      $0
          California                        $155       $155      $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
          California        Dry             $166       $166      $0
*Prices listed per ton.
          Weekly Average                    $95         $95      $0
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN

collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.


                  VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
                                    Settlement Price:     Quote Date              Bushel     Short Ton
                                                 Corn           4/27/2017        $3.6200           $129.29
                                         Soybean Meal           4/27/2017                          $310.50
                        DDG Weekly Average Spot Price                                               $95.00
                               DDG Value Relative to:                          4/27            4/20
                                                 Corn                             73.48%            74.35%
                                         Soybean Meal                             30.59%            30.85%
                            Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                                  DDG                              $3.80             $3.80
                                         Soybean Meal                              $6.54             $6.48
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 25.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at Mary.Kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

   

   

******************************************************************************
Spring Wheat Planting Off to Slow Start in Key States

   Spring wheat planting was behind in five of the key growing states as of 
April 16, with Idaho and Washington significantly behind, followed by Minnesota 
and then North Dakota and Montana, according to last week's USDA Crop Progress 
report. If you look at a map of 2017 spring wheat final planting dates, parts 
of Idaho, Washington and Montana are three weeks away from their final 
insurance plant dates. Rain is expected in Washington through the rest of the 
month, and some estimate prevented-planting acres could be 10% to 15% as their 
last plant date nears. Northwestern Minnesota is experiencing cold temperatures 
and a rain/snow mix as of April 24, which will also stall planting.

   North Dakota NASS noted that as of April 16, in the northern part of the 
state where large amounts of snow were received this winter, muddy soils still 
exist. Some isolated areas in northeast North Dakota were still experiencing 
some flooding. Six inches of snow fell in the same area as of April 23, with 
more expected in the Northern Valley to start the week. Also, most of the 
western half of the state, including Jamestown and north, is under a winter 
weather advisory as of April 24. 

   I talked to farmers and elevator managers in Montana, North Dakota and South 
Dakota to find out how planting, or the lack thereof, is progressing. South 
Dakota is, so far, the only winner, with 52% of their spring wheat planted, 
ahead of the five-year average of 44% as of April 16. In the Aberdeen, South 
Dakota, area, one farmer said he was 100% finished planting, and another said 
he has all 1,700 acres planted. Others said they were done a couple weeks ago, 
and acres are 40% less than last year. Another farmer said he has been done for 
about a week and a half, but didn't plant a lot.

   "Spring wheat planting is over one-half done and should finish this week," 
said Jerry Cope, who does the grain marketing for Dakota Mill & Grain, Inc. in 
Rapid City, South Dakota. "Predicted rains may slow the finish, but it is early 
for most crops, so not sure that there will be as big of a push to switch, at 
least not for another week to 10 days. Low prices now, a low price outlook and, 
in some cases, stress getting lines of credit renewed makes it harder than ever 
to predict acres. However, western South Dakota farmers like to plant wheat, so 
I am going to guess unchanged to down no more than 10% with a wide margin of 
error! On the bright side, timely rains are getting planted crops off to a good 
start." 

   Todd Yeaton, manager of Gavilon elevator in Kimball, South Dakota, said, "We 
have 70% of last year's acres and 90% of the spring wheat is in the ground in 
our area."

   Ryan Wagner, Wagner Farms in Roslyn, South Dakota, told me, "We started last 
Saturday and, after a few short delays, finished up Monday, the day after 
Easter. For the most part, the guys that are still growing spring wheat around 
here only planned on seeding a field or two for straw or a place to put manure, 
so most only had a day's worth of seeding to do anyway. We got a nice 0.5 inch 
of rain on top of everything after planting was done, so it should get off to a 
good start."

   Heading north of the border to North Dakota, the stories are much different 
than their southern neighbors. Allan Rohrich, Rohrich Farms in Zeeland, North 
Dakota, farms with his brother and father. He told me that they are about 50% 
planted on spring wheat but were shut down by showers early in the week. "Looks 
like we may see some more tomorrow that will keep us out of the field 'til 
close to the weekend. Planting has been slow around the area, mainly because I 
don't think there is much wheat going to be planted."

   Brad Thykeson, of Portland, North Dakota, said, "Pretty slow to start. There 
are pockets of seed in the ground, but north of Highway 2, it will be closer to 
May."

   Matt Powell of Hope, North Dakota, said there will be no planting for a week 
in Hope. Ola Lindell of Jamestown, North Dakota, said they were at least a week 
away if they have decent weather. And Josh Ostenson of Finley, North Dakota 
said, "Haven't turned a wheel yet." A farmer in Binford, North Dakota, said he 
didn't know of anyone in that area that has seeded any spring wheat.

   Keith Brandt, general manager of Plains, Grain and Agronomy in Enderlin, 
North Dakota, told me late in the week, "Local area maybe has close to 25% of 
this year's spring wheat planted. Was in the Mott, North Dakota, area midweek; 
70% to 80% of the wheat planted. Acres are down 25% from last year. While 80% 
to 90% of last year's crop is marketed, there is no new crop on the books." 

   Jeff Kittell, a merchandiser at Border Ag & Energy in Russell, North Dakota, 
said, "Nothing has been done in area north of Minot; we still have snow in tree 
rows, but we may see some NH3 going down later this week. I have heard some 
wheat has been planted in Garrison area." 

   Paul Anderson, a farmer in the Coleharbor, North Dakota area, which is near 
Garrison, told me that he has to plant peas and lentils first before he can 
start wheat. 

   Dave Kjelstrup, who farms near Underwood, North Dakota, said that "Planting 
is underway but kind of slow. Lots of wet spots in the fields, so you have to 
pick where to seed. Wheat planting is going to be way down, obviously because 
of the price. We are only putting in close to 700 acres; starting on it the end 
of the week. I don't think farmers around here are going to plant much wheat, 
and not a lot has been planted to date. I talked to a farmer from Mohall 
yesterday, and he has not gotten his seeder out yet and probably won't till 
May."

   "Spring wheat planting has started, but not by everyone," said Tim Dufault, 
who farms in the Crookston, Minnesota, area. "West Central Minnesota and 
southern Red River Valley got started last week. They are drier. Less of their 
total acreage base is HRS, so many on those farms might be done planting. 
Western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota saw rains Monday and Tuesday. That 
southern area saw from 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. That will stop them for a few 
days. Northern RRV had less rain, a trace to .75 inch, but that area was wetter 
to start with." 

   Dufault continued, "In the Crookston area, maybe a third of the growers have 
planted wheat, usually on drier ground like last year's sugar beet ground. In 
the Crookston area, maybe a third of the growers have planted wheat, usually on 
drier ground like last year's sugar beet ground. I thought I could start Monday 
night (April 17), but I was wrong. Fields still have areas that are too wet to 
make a good seed bed. But I think after the 0.5 inches of rain we had, I should 
be able to go by the weekend."

   In Big Sandy, Montana, some farmers were busy seeding wheat, peas and 
safflowers. In the Golden Triangle, located in central Montana, wheat seeding 
is slightly behind normal, according to a farmer who spoke to me. He said he 
estimated they are a week or so behind, but he expects "Lots of acres of DNS 
(dark northern spring wheat) to be planted." The three points of the Golden 
Triangle are Havre, Conrad and Great Falls. In the heart of the Golden 
Triangle, Chouteau County is the largest wheat-producing county in Montana.

   With fewer acres predicted to be planted in the U.S., any planting delays or 
the inability to get the crop in before insurance dates pass will be a concern 
for millers, exporters and end users. And while Canada is predicting a rise in 
spring wheat acres, according to the most recent Stats Can report, weather 
problems have plagued growers there as well.

   MINIMAL SPRING WHEAT PLANTING IN CANADA

   Minimal planting has taken place on the prairies to date, with some activity 
reported in southern Alberta and in southwestern Saskatchewan, DTN Canadian 
Grains Analyst Cliff Jamieson said. "Prairie temperatures are expected to 
remain below normal into early May, while southern Manitoba is dealing with the 
aftermath of spring flooding while the northern areas of Alberta have seen 
recent spring snow."

   "Friday's Statistics Canada report shows farmers bucking the global trend 
when it comes to expected acres planted to wheat, after both the United States 
and Australian governments reported fewer acres seeded to the crop. In total, 
producers are expected to seed 23.2 million acres of all-wheat (includes durum 
and winter wheat remaining), slightly higher than the upper end of pre-report 
expectations, down just 0.1% from 2016-17 and only 1.2% below the 10-year 
average. By class, an expected 8.2% increase in spring wheat varieties to 16.7 
ma comes close to offsetting the 16.9% drop in durum acres to 5.145 ma, which 
is still 2.9% higher than the 10-year average," Jamieson said. 

   "Interestingly," Jamieson said, "this is the same year-over-year percentage 
drop for durum expected on both sides of the border. As well, the estimated 
winter wheat remaining is pegged at 1.373 ma, down 15.1%. Geographically, 
eastern Canada's producers are expected to trim wheat acres by 8.3%, mostly 
winter wheat, while prairie farmers are expected to increase planted area of 
all-wheat by 80,000 acres or 0.4%." 

   The area that is expected to boost spring wheat acres is Alberta, where, 
according to Stats Can estimates, acres will increase 10% to 7.4 million. Maybe 
so, but Alberta is still trying to harvest up to 1 ma of farmland left in the 
field last fall because of poor weather halting harvest attempts. On top of 
that, snow fell over the Easter weekend in central Alberta, further delaying 
farmers' ability to harvest and plant. Plus, even more snow has been falling 
since Easter in the northern areas of the province. Time will tell how that all 
plays out as far as farmers' ability to increase spring wheat acreage. 

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************

For more free DTN information sent right to your email each morning - click here to sign up for DTN Snapshot.
 
 
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN