Yield vs Cost Per Bag 11/14/16 9:20:30 AM|
Current Yield Grids—We are almost done with plot work and have current grids for in the office—Once the grids are complete I will post them on our website for your further review. Overall performance has been GREAT—Probably the soybean crop of a lifetime for most producers and the Top 3 or 5 corn crop for many growers in SE Nebraska for the 2016 growing season. Weed Control--Now is an ideal time fall applications of Authority, Valor, or Trivence for marestail and additional winter annual weed control for 2017 soybean acres.
Soil Sampling--Remember to replace what you harvest---record crops will remove record amounts of fertility—soil sampling gives you an idea of what was removed and what is needed for the 2017 planting intentions.
Seed Price Discounts 12% Volume, 8% Cash by Nov. 22nd 2016
12% Volume, 6% Cash till Jan. 20th 2017
WBI offers a 12% volume discount to all growers regardless of the number of units.
These discounts are taken off the list price of the seed on the date of purchase. Aggressive additional discount programs available for qualifying orders.
Making Sense of Yield--When a field is significantly better or worse than your farm average, it is hard to know for sure why. Especially when motivated by weather conditions, the differences may be large within only a mile or two between locations. Consider these factors as you analyze crop yields.
- Yield history – Has this field tended to be different than your average in the past?
- Planting date – How did it compare to similar fields planted at the same time?
- Maturity – How did the hybrid/variety compare to others of similar maturity?
- Rainfall – Could this field have received significantly more or less rainfall?
- Cropping practices – Are there tillage, fertility, herbicide or other differences?
- Hybrid/variety selection – How did that hybrid or variety perform in other fields?
Often the answer is not just one thing, but a very complex set of issues and conditions. In research we refer to this variability as G ´ E or Genotype by Environment interaction. Put simply G ´ E is the way a hybrid or variety responds to its environment. We try to manage G ´ E by researching performance in as many environments as possible in an attempt to know where hybrids perform the best. Unfortunately, even if we know what hybrids will excel in a certain environment – the environment always changes from one year to the next. We use the best information available and then recommend a package of several diverse hybrids to put you in the best position to take advantage favorable environments and protect you from less-favorable ones.
Seed Cost and Gross Income
As we have for the past 5 years now, we have again taken the liberty of looking at current difference in prices for SEED ONLY. The reason being is that, the price for grain sold is the lowest is has been for about five years now and that alone inevitably impacts the input cost for next year’s crop. I will focus on Pioneer and Asgrow/DeKalb brands for this discussion as they are larger market share holders in this area The costs of the fertilizer, fungicide, herbicide and a number of the other input costs would be fixed between the two comparisons. I will use $3 corn and $9 soybeans for the cash selling prices--close to “real world” prices. The real difference is in this comparison is the cost per bag and the yield between Asgrow/ DeKalb and Pioneer genetics. Asgrow and Dekalb seed prices for the 2017 season have been flat and generally constant for the past 4 years. We selected these Pioneer and Asgrow/DeKalb comparisons last Spring as they appeared to have a large market share of the acres being planted to soybeans for the 2016 growing season.
The annual question is: How much cheaper does a Pioneer hybrid/variety of relative maturity have to be in order for your investment to be equal?
Forget about agronomics for a minute. Focus only on what the seed costs you and what it yields.
|Grower Name ||Joe Farmer || |
|Field Name ||DeKalb vs Pioneer Seed Cost || |
|Scenario ||Current 011/14/2016 || |
|Program ||Seed Cost Analysis- WBI—Corn |
| ||DeKalb ||Pioneer |
| ||110RM ||111RM |
| ||DKC60-87 ||P1197AM1 |
|2016 Ave. Plot Yield (bu/a) (20 locs in SE NEB.—11/14/2016) ||236.6 ||223.6 |
|Estimated Selling Price/Bushel ||$3.00 ||$3.00 |
|Gross Return/Acre ||$709.80 ||$670.80 |
|CURRENT DK--Seed Price/Unit ||$295.50 ||$192.86 |
|Bags Per Acre ||$0.38 ||$0.38 |
|Seed Cost/Acre ||$112.29 ||$73.29 |
|Projected gross return on YOUR seed investment/acre ||$597.51 ||$597.51 |
In 2016, Pioneer’s price of 1197AM1 needed to be at $192.86/unit in order for your investment in seed to have an equal amount in return on your investment in DeKalb DKC60-87.
DKC60-87 is a SmartStax RIB version of DKC60-88 which is VT2RIB—and is currently priced after discounts as $262.31--$33.19 per unit cheaper. If you want to use DKC60-88 pricing in this scenario—Pioneer’s 1197AM1 needs to be at $159.65/unit in order for it to be an equal return on your investment.
How about soybeans??
|Grower Name ||Joe Farmer || || |
|Field Name ||Asgrow vs Pioneer Seed Cost || || |
|Scenario ||Current 11/14/2016 || || |
|Program ||Seed Cost Analysis- WBI—Soybeans |
| ||Asgrow ||Pioneer || |
| ||4.0RM ||3.9RM || |
| ||AG4034 ||P39T67 || |
|2016 Ave. Plot Yield (bu/a) (15 locs in SE NEB.—11/14/2016) ||65.48 ||60.10 || |
|Estimated Selling Price/Bushel ||$9.00 ||$9.00 || |
|Gross Return/Acre ||$589.32 ||$540.90 || |
|CURRENT Asgrow--Seed Price/Unit ||$49.39 ||$9.03 || |
|Bags Per Acre ||$1.20 ||$1.20 || |
|Seed Cost/Acre ||$59.26 ||$10.84 || |
|Projected gross return on YOUR seed investment/acre ||$530.06 ||$530.06 || |
In 2016, Pioneer’s price on 39T67 needs to be $9.03/unit in order for your investment in seed to have an equal amount in return on your investment in Asgrow AG4034.
Consider this thought process. Now is the REAL WORLD? It is as real as we can make it……These plots are planted with cooperators across SE Nebraska on their terms. Meaning, we have no pre-planned thoughts around what the population, fertility, site location, planted date, etc., needs to be. We simply plant the plots with our cooperators on their terms and see what the outcome is.
Is Asgrow and DeKalb seed an investment? ABSOLUTELY. Is it the cheapest?? ABSOLUTELY NOT. Our commitment to you is to offer you genetics, and local competitive data that support the genetics, to justify your investment. Cheaper and locally un-documented performing seed versus relative brands and maturities does not always make you the most money at the end of the year. I fully realize that seed cost weighs heavy on every producers mind. The question we annually ask is—are you—did you get what you paid for?
John W. McNamara
Wiles Bros. Inc.
606 Wiles Road
Plattsmouth NE. 68048